Bookies are companies that take our bets on one or another event and then after knowing the outcome gives us profits. They offer odds that we can use. Whether these factors affect the probability of winning a team or reflect the commercial spirit of the bookmaker ? It’s not their fault that we are fooled by the low values of the coefficients and we think that if the coefficient is 1.2 the probability of the favorite is 75 %.
Bookmakers want or if they want to stay current on market bets are required every day to give their lists of coefficients etc. lines. In the beginning everything starts from fairly often. Experts from these companies need to clarify the balance of power of both teams for each specific meeting to determine the probability of the outcome of this meeting. Bookies use available statistical and analytical information and its grounds, calculated by special software etc. “Fair odds”. Of course, that different bookmakers have different views on the outcome of the meeting, ie chances for either team, but the differences are not large.
Let us assume that the game is A vs B, bookmaker believes that the chances in percentage terms are 40% – 30% – 30%, ie 40% chance to beat A, 30% have no winner and 30% to defeat B. These conclusions are made solely by statistics, mathematics and information available on existing and injured players for the teams and a number of other factors. If on the basis of these percentages, calculate odds, they will be 2.5 / 3.33 / 3.33. They are obtained by dividing the unit of percent probability (1 / 0.4 = 2.5, 1 / 0.3 = 3.33, 1 / 0.3 = 0.33).
Using these odds bookmaker will not win anything. For this is so introduces “profit margin”. For example, in our case, let’s margin is 15%. What does this mean? As can be seen the sum of the percentages is 100% (40% + 30% + 30%). When introducing margin amount becomes 100% + margin or in the case – 115%. When translating the percentages using margin is obtained 46% – 34.5% – 34.5% = 115%. Coefficients respectively in this case are 2.17 / 2.90 / 2.90.
So the coefficients may be given to the players. There is no guarantee that the money are bet by the players for the three types of outputs from the meeting will be in the ratio 46% – 34.5% – 34.5%.
Usually people like the favorites. In other words, the players decided that the probability of the game is 50% – 30% – 20%.
If you are bookie, you will change the odds. Need to account for factors public opinion and the expected distribution of money. It does not matter what the actual probabilities of outcomes, is an important gain. A profit will be formed if comply with the cash inflows.
Bookmaker take long-term benefits. If you consider only this match, things will not develop exactly as we pointed out before.
What are the conclusions we draw from all this. The more popular a meeting, so it is less likely the odds to give us a real impact on the chances of the outcome of the meeting. It can be assumed that the people who bet understand football game and we have to follow them. But think about how many of your friends are synonymous with football, soccer and understand if they rely only on the sports passion. Many people hearing Barcelona or Manchester United pour money into their victory. Do not be influenced by the size of the coefficients when you search for an event. Calculate your odds and use the coefficients only calculate stakes using a financial strategy /materials by http:// 1x2win .blog. bg/